"TEN-CONNECT": Traffic Flow: Scenario, Traffic Forecast and Analysis of Traffic on the TEN-T, Taking into Consideration the External Dimension of the European Union
Traffic Flow: Scenario, Traffic Forecast and Analysis of Traffic on the TEN-T, Taking into Consideration the External Dimension of the European Union
Analyse und Prognose der Verkehrsströme des transeuropäischen Netzwerkes TEN-T, unter Berücksichtigung der Nachbarländer der Europäischen Union
September 2007 to December 2009
Applicant: DG TREN, Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission)
Tetraplan AS, Copenhagen, Denmark
Centre for Traffic & Transport, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark
BMT – Transport Solutions, Hamburg, Germany
Institute for System Integrating Studies, Italy
Institute for Regional Research, University of Kiel, Germany
Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds University, UK
University of Belgrade, Serbia
Informi GIS, Denmark
Sudop, Czech Republic
Technical University of Vilnius, Lithuania
University of Szczecin, Poland,
Consortium leader: Tetraplan AS, Copenhagen, Denmark
General project objectives
The TEN Connect consortium recognises the need for a uniform and coherent tool to assess the major transport corridors in EU27 and their extension into the neighbouring countries and to other major trade partners. The tool will comprise an updated traffic model covering all modes in the EU27 and the neighbouring countries in detail and the major trade partners with a lower level of detail. Furthermore the assessment tool will comprise a model for assessment of economic, environmental and social impacts of in-frastructure and other major improvements in the transport system following the Commissions guidelines. With this coherent assessment tool an assessment of the major trans-port corridors in EU27 and the neighbouring countries will be evaluated.
The TEN Connect consortium will use TRANS-TOOLS as the basic transport model for the assessments. TRANS-TOOLS provides forecasts for all modes including inter-modal transport chains both for passenger and freight flows.
The TRANS-TOOLS model will be updated: The coverage of Bulgaria and Romania and several of the neighbouring countries in the current version of the TRANS-TOOLS is rather fragmented and needs to be improved. Moreover, the trade model, forming part of TRANS-TOOLS, will be changed to a further development of the CGEurope model. The results of the study will be applied to the forthcoming revision of the TEN Guidelines in 2010.
The TEN Connect consortium is made up of companies who have been active in strategic analyses of the infrastructure connecting the EU and the neighbouring countries, and in analysis of a number of the present 30 priority projects. Therefore, there is considerable knowledge concerning the infrastructure, both in the EU and in the neighbouring countries within the members of the consortium.
The study is not only focused on freight transport but passenger transport should also be considered in the evaluation. Likewise it is stressed that the main topic for the analyses is infrastructure connecting the old and new EU countries, connecting the new EU countries with each other and connecting the EU with the neighbouring countries. It attaches im-mense importance to bottlenecks related to poor and damaged infrastructure, which is an obvious problem in some of the new EU countries, but even more in the neighbouring countries.
Main research fields
Task 1 Traffic forecasts for 2020 and 2030
Forecast for the future traffic flows in EU and the neighbouring countries for 2020 and 2030 with particular focus on flows between old and new Member States, between new Member States and between EU and the neighbouring countries.
The analysis will cover all transport modes, both freight and passenger traffic on links and through nodes with a focus on the TEN-T network. To provide this the consortium applies the TRANS-TOOLS model in combination with the existing CGEurope model and fore-casts which encompass the neighbouring countries. Therefore, the base year in the TRANS-TOOLS model needs to be updated to 2005, based on an in-depth analysis of current traffic volumes and the development from 2000 to 2005.
Driving forces for trade, traffic and transport development will be assessed, e.g. economic growth, future trade patterns, changes in production patterns (outsourcing), trends in leisure and holiday patterns, transport pricing policy, fuel prices development, or pricing of climate gasses.
Based on this assessment, the baseline situation and 2-3 scenarios for the situation in 2020 and 2030 will be defined following a dialogue with the Commission. The baseline will be a “do nothing” scenario including already agreed infrastructure and policy meas-ures and in line with the current trends. The 2-3 other scenarios will describe alternative developments illustrating trend shifts The sum of scenarios will illustrate the expected scope of the possible future.
The TRANS-TOOLS model will provide forecasts for all modes for 2020 and 2030 in the baseline and the scenarios for all modes for both freight and passenger transport with particular focus on transport between old and new Member States, between the new Member States and between EU and neighbouring countries. An analysis will be made to asses of the influence of the basic assumptions and the policy measures in the scenarios on the traffic flows. Flows will be illustrated and visualised on maps with restrictions caused by the available infrastructure but also in an imaginary situation without any infra-structure capacity restrictions. These maps will provide a first indication of the infrastruc-ture based bottlenecks in the system, to be further analysed in task 3 in the project.
Task 2 – Identification of major transnational axes
Results from the TRANS-TOOLS model are used to identify corridors that connect several member states and connect member states with neighbouring countries and other main trading partners.
Task 3 – Identification of bottlenecks
A way of identifying bottlenecks is to make two runs with the TRANS-TOOLS model, one with no capacity constrains and the other with capacity constraints and viewing the result-ing flow differences. Constraints and bottlenecks can be related to physical conditions of the road or railway and also to border crossing problems, operability problems and other administrative and technical operational problems related to the use of infrastructure as well as to environmental bottlenecks.
Task 4 - Assessment of the economic, environmental and social impacts of policy and infrastructure packages
This task sets out to assess at least five different infrastructure investment packages with different total costs aiming at removing the most pressing bottlenecks identified in task 3 and contributing most to Single Market, cohesion and trade at the EU level.
Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel
Project Leader at the Institute: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker
Project Staff (Research): Artem Korzhenevych (M.A.), Marie-Catherine Riekhof
The IfR will apply the CGEurope model and will improve the TRANS-TOOLS trade model. The IfR will also participate in the evaluation carried out in task 2 and task 4.