"TRANS-TOOLS": Tools for Transport Forecasting and Scenario Testing
Instrumente zur Verkehrsprognose und Szenarioanalyse
Applicant: DG TREN, Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission), 6th Framework Programme
Time Schedule: October 2004 - March 2008
Project ManagementThe TRANS-TOOLS Project involves 8 partners, who will need to co-operate closely together. The project co-ordination is carried out by TNO Inro.
Name of Project Partner
General project objectivesTRANS-TOOLS aims to produce a European transport network model covering both passengers and freight, as well as intermodal transport, which overcomes the shortcomings of current European transport network models.
Main shortcomings include the unsatisfactory representation of mix of traffic (short/long distance and freight/passenger), the (partly) missing presence of intermodality and freight logistics in models, differences in implementation of Origin-Destination base year for freight traffic in some models, outdated character of some models, no sufficient linkage of network based transport models with socio-economic effects and external effects.
As on the European realm different models for different options and with different IPR settings are anticipated, it is useful to construct an IPR free instrument on the basis of the best available knowledge (i.e. notably at partners that have been involved in building models that involve European policy questions).
The aim is to develop a European network-based transport model starting from the ideas consolidated in the modelling experience of the consortium partners. This means that some of the features of the current available EU models will be added, considering that while the model cannot be a tool for every purpose, the selection of the model features should be essentially on the basis of the policy needs addressed by the European Commission services. It is already quite clear that the SCENES model approach will provide good suggestions for the treatment of passenger transport and the interaction of local and long distance traffic, that the VACLAV transport network will be a suitable basis for the development of an efficient transport assignment model, that NEAC will provide the information for proper description of freight transport and that the SCENES model will constitute a reference for the treatment of intermodal transport, as well as SLAM for logistics.
This will lead in the following clear innovations obtained form TRANS-TOOLS:
- New set up of a demand/supply model;
- Intermodality for passenger/freight (as National and European transport policies seek to promote intermodality through different measures);
- Inclusion of intercontinental flows (mainly for freight), as some models do not cover this segment;
- Full coverage of Central and Eastern Europe (Accession Countries and the countries at the borders of the enlarged European Union);
- Integration of the new Member States at a level similar to those of EU 15;
- Feedback infrastructure development economy (as the question of indirect effects in the economy and on network level is important, especially where investment has a substantial influence - notably for Accession Countries);
- Logistics/freight chain explicitly included;
- Coupling method with local traffic in order to address the effect of congestion on long-distance traffic;
- The consortium provides access to all relevant experience concerning EU and national modelling;
- A software approach is chosen which results in a software modelling tool on network level.
Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel (CAU)Project leader:
Prof. Dr. Johannes BröckerProject staff:
Nils Schneekloth, Artem Korzhenevych (project research)
The Institute for Regional Research as a part of the TRANS-TOOLS consortium aims at building upon the previous CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) modelling experiences in IASON with the CGEurope model, a spatial general equilibrium model for Europe. The focus of the research is on evaluating welfare effects in a comparative static framework fulfilling all equilibrium conditions.
The model will be used to assess the economic welfare effects and effects on the sectoral structure in future policy scenarios. The model results will be used by the partners who apply the NEAC model, to introduce a feedback between the effects in the transport sector and the effects on economic growth and distribution of sectoral economic activities.